{"id":6746,"date":"2025-02-28T15:39:46","date_gmt":"2025-02-28T08:39:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/phintracosekuritas.com\/?p=6746"},"modified":"2025-02-28T15:49:52","modified_gmt":"2025-02-28T08:49:52","slug":"the-fed-pantau-data-inflasi-dan-dampak-kebijakan-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/phintracosekuritas.com\/berita\/the-fed-pantau-data-inflasi-dan-dampak-kebijakan-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"The Fed Pantau Data Inflasi dan Dampak Kebijakan Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"

Terpilihnya Donald Trump sebagai Presiden Amerika Serikat (AS) membuat Negeri Paman Sam kembali menerapkan \u201cAmerica First\u201d dalam setiap aspek negaranya. Hal ini memengaruhi putusan The Fed, sebagai bank sentral AS, dalam menentukan suku bunga acuan.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Fed tengah mencoba mempertahankan suku bunga acuan agar tetap berada di kisaran 4.25%-4.50% dan melakukan jeda sementara untuk mengobservasi perkembangan inflasi lebih lanjut. Keputusan ini ditetapkan karena ekonomi AS berada di tingkat yang kuat dan suku bunga tidak lagi menghambat perekonomian negara. Selain itu, The Fed juga membutuhkan waktu untuk menilai dampak kebijakan Trump di beberapa bidang, seperti imigrasi, tarif, dan perpajakan bagi ekonomi AS.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mengacu pada laporan <\/span>Global Macro Flash<\/span><\/a> tim riset Phintraco Sekuritas tanggal 30 Januari 2025, berdasarkan Indeks Harga Konsumsi (PCE), data inflasi berada di angka 2.40% YoY pada November 2024 dan proyeksi konsensus pasar memperkirakan kenaikan sebesar 0.20% menjadi 2.60% YoY di Desember 2024. Sedangkan pada pertemuan <\/span>Federal Open market Committee <\/span><\/i>(FOMC) di 19 Maret 2025 mendatang, The Fed memperkirakan suku bunga akan bertahan di angka 4.25%-4.50% dengan probabilitas 77%.<\/span><\/p>\n\"\"\n

Gambar 1: Target Tingkat Probabilitas di FOMC per 29 Januari 2025<\/span><\/p>\n

Sumber: <\/span>Phintraco Sekuritas Global Macro Flash Report <\/span><\/i>(30 Januari 2025)<\/span><\/p>\n

Di sisi lain, berdasarkan proyeksi <\/span>dot plot<\/span><\/i>, dalam waktu 1 tahun ke depan suku bunga The Fed diprediksi akan mengalami 2 kali penurunan sebesar 50 basis poin (bps) berada di angka 3.75%-4.00% pada akhir 2025. Namun secara <\/span>longer run <\/span><\/i>suku bunga diperkirakan akan berada pada level 2.75%-3.00%.<\/span><\/p>\n\"\"\n

Gambar 2: <\/span>Dot Plot <\/span><\/i>Partisipan <\/span>FOMC <\/span><\/i>per 18 Desember 2024<\/span><\/p>\n

Sumber: <\/span>Phintraco Sekuritas Global Macro Flash Report <\/span><\/i>(30 Januari 2025)<\/span><\/p>\n

Dari riset tersebut, Tim Riset Phintraco Sekuritas melihat keputusan The Fed dalam mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga berdasarkan ekspektasi pasar telah mendorong pelemahan minor pada <\/span>Dollar Index <\/span><\/i>(DXY) dalam perdagangan di akhir Januari 2025. Selain itu, per 30 Januari 2025, pergerakan <\/span>2-year UST yield <\/span><\/i>stabil di angka 4.21% dan <\/span>10-year UST yield <\/span><\/i>turun 1 bps menjadi 4.52%.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Penulis: Nur Ryshalti & Valdy Kurniawan<\/span><\/p>\n

Editor: Yundira Putri Rahmadianti & Dhira Parama Yuga<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Terpilihnya Donald Trump sebagai Presiden Amerika Serikat (AS) membuat Negeri Paman Sam kembali menerapkan \u201cAmerica First\u201d dalam setiap aspek negaranya. Hal ini memengaruhi putusan The Fed, sebagai bank sentral AS, dalam menentukan suku bunga acuan. The Fed tengah mencoba mempertahankan suku bunga acuan agar tetap berada di kisaran 4.25%-4.50% dan melakukan jeda sementara untuk mengobservasi… Read more »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":6753,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[396,254,256,260,310,394],"class_list":["post-6746","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-berita","tag-bank-sentral","tag-inflasi","tag-inflasi-indonesia","tag-phintraco-sekuritas","tag-suku-bunga","tag-the-fed"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Fed Pantau Data Inflasi dan Dampak Kebijakan Trump - Phintraco Sekuritas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/phintracosekuritas.com\/berita\/the-fed-pantau-data-inflasi-dan-dampak-kebijakan-trump\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Fed Pantau Data Inflasi dan Dampak Kebijakan Trump - Phintraco Sekuritas\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Terpilihnya Donald Trump sebagai Presiden Amerika Serikat (AS) membuat Negeri Paman Sam kembali menerapkan \u201cAmerica First\u201d dalam setiap aspek negaranya. Hal ini memengaruhi putusan The Fed, sebagai bank sentral AS, dalam menentukan suku bunga acuan. The Fed tengah mencoba mempertahankan suku bunga acuan agar tetap berada di kisaran 4.25%-4.50% dan melakukan jeda sementara untuk mengobservasi... 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